njt_hsh_2008

Interview Exclusive! 6 Burning Questions with John Moscariello

Q: New Jersey's win total has declined for three straight years, will that trend continue or will the mighty NJT climb back atop the Trash Heap, a space they owned from 2001 – 2003?

If I have less than 60 wins this year, I'm going to cry. The initial NJT team was built for immediate sucess and we definitely had it. We've had a solid influx of young talent and their MLB performance finally showing. This year isn't going to be easy, but I am hoping we can make a push for the playoffs. I'm hoping that the GRK and NJT rivalry from the 2001 to 2003 years continues to be for the division lead and not the division basement.

Q: Will Jeremy Hermida ever develop into the top-level talent he was projected to be?

What kind of question is that! Of course he will. Let's just look at the 2nd half of last year for the Marlins (post All-Star Break):

.340 BA, .401 OBP, .555 Slg, .956 OPS, 10 HR

While I am not delusional enough to think that's what his '08 stats will be like, I fully expect a few .280/.400/.550 years in the future. I am very excited about the Hawpe, Hermida, Swisher outfield.

Q: Two of the league's most dominant players are on your roster – A-Rod (5 MVPs and counting) and the Big Unit (5 Cy Youngs). Who have your scouts identified as the next big star in the league? Perhaps Bonderman and Hermida could fill that role if/when they reach their potential.

Wow, on NJT I have a man crush on Howie Kendrick. Completely opposite of the NJT mold, but man do I love him. I guess once I finally gave up on my first pet player (Jeff Weaver) I had to find another. Personally, I don't really see anyone in the NASBL right now who can be the elite of an ARod or Randy. Those players come around are once every 20 years or so. The key to a player like ARod is dominance at the plate and in the field. Pujols is right there offensively, but to have that production at SS is insane. There's a few pitchers I think can get up there with Randy in the future, but I'm not going to tip my hand too much. I might just pick one up in the draft this year.

Q: Having the #3 overall pick in the upcoming draft is a huge luxury. Without giving too much away, what are NJT's plans for that pick – trade, fill a positional need, take best player available?

I'll just say there's a player I really really really like this year that fits a need and is the best player available.

Q: When looking ahead five years, what player on your team gives you the most cause for optimism?

Howie Kendrick.

Q: What do you enjoy to most about NASBL?

I really like the owners, the rivalries, and the competition

What went right?
The Trash Heap offense packed some serious punch. Richie Sexson (.286/43/123), Nick Swisher (.267/38/104) and Alex Rodriguez (.316/33/117) led 5 Heapers with over 20 homeruns. A-Rod and Johnny Damon tied for 3rd in the league in runs scored with 115 (behind only HHA's Bobby Abreu and Miguel Tejada). Jeremy Bonderman (16-14, 4.57) and Randy Johnson (11-12, 5.08) both cracked 200 strikeouts, and finished 3rd and 4th respectively in the league K chase.

What went wrong?
Along their way to GM John Moscariello's first losing season in his otherwise sterling 7-year NASBL career, the Heap underperformed their Pythagorean Win Expectancy by a startling 11 games. Usually when a team Overperforms their Pythag, a good place to begin the rationale search in earnest is in the bullpen. In the case of the 2007 Trash Heap's dramatic underperformance, the search for reasons also starts and ends in the pen. While "closer" Francisco Cordero (2-8, 6.47) did save 21 games, opposing batters routinely hit him so hard his airbags deployed. "Airbags" 10 blown saves and 8 losses were prime contributors to the Heap's atrocious 13-26 record in 1-run games and 6-12 record in extra frames.

In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. Sticking with the deadball-era pitching philosophy with dead-armed pitchers. While Randy Johnson (12 cg's) and Jeremy Bonderman (13 cg's) no doubt provided better game-finishing alternatives than incendiaries Ruddy Lugo (102 baserunners in 54.1 ip) and Jason Isringhausen (65 baserunners in 30.2 ip), the 22 combined complete games by Cliff Lee (7-20, 6.02), Livan Hernandez (12-19, 6.22), and Zach Duke (6-17, 7.28) often had more of a "tough love" than a "tough guy" ring to them. While Livan did post two shutouts (shame on you, VFS and OJW...), he also posted two mustard-gas quality stinkers, a 17-run 24-hitter against VFS on 7/11, and a 19-run 23-hit effort against NYK on 8/22. Similarly, LCC dropped a 16-spot on Cliff Lee on June 12th, while The Duke granted 11 runs to TTB on 9/20.

2. Drafting young (aka, "not ready for primetime") players. Perhaps seeing the writing on the wall, or perhaps sensing the strange smells of old people and soap and Depenz undergarments in the locker room, for the second year in a row GM Moscariello went way young in the draft. Building on the high risk / high reward picks of JJ Hardy, Nick Swisher, and Jeremy Reed in 2006, Mosco tabbed Howie Kendrick (.244/2/19), Jeremy Hermida (.179/0/3) and Chad Billingsley (0-1, 8.23) with his top '07 picks. The obvious short-term effect of this strategy was that NJT, like GRK and OJW, did not have even the teensy 8-oz glass of juice necessary to crack the 70-win barrier to steal the division win and a chance at playoff glory.

3. Sticking with Old Fella's Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield (.344/4/26), and Richie Sexson. Despite the 2-year long NJT draft-day youth movement, the Heap have never dropped that catch-all euphemistic two word end-run phrase for "we give up." No, they've never whispered the dreaded words, "we're rebuilding." Instead, Kings of the Heap such as Sheff and RJ, plus the suddenly 30-something A-Rod, continue to stick around and do their productive things while the youngsters do what comes naturally - growing up.

Looking ahead to 2008

Three key questions
1. When, if ever, will the recent Heap blue-chippers pay off on the field? While 2006 1st rounder JJ Hardy (10 hr in 156 ab's) showed admirable power, he often looked like the blindfolded kid swinging at the pinata (.218 batting average). Chad Billingsley did a great job throwing batting practice to NJT hitters, but couldn't seem to turn it off when it was his turn to go live against other teams. 2007 1st rounder Howie Kendrick managed to lose his job to '07 4th rounder Ian Kinsler, but even Kinsler didn't particlarly impress (.236/14/52). A great deal hinges on which career development path the latest two Trash Heap draft classes take. Will it be the Draft and Follow success of Swisher and Hawpe (.288/25/87), or will it be the Draft and Disappear route of Jeremy Reed?

2. How much do Randy Johnson and Gary Sheffield have left in the tank? While RJ did record the 9th double-digit win and 200 strikeout season of his career, his win and strikeout totals were both his lowest full-season totals ever, while his 5.08 ERA was the highest of his career. Meanwhile, Sheffield is on a 3-year slide in homeruns, doubles, RBI, and runs scored. With little downward mobility left, it's incumbent upon Sheffield to reverse his recent trend if New Jersey is to also turn their fortunes around.

3. Who will win the NJT starting 2b job in 2008? Howie Kendrick has the pedigree, Ian Kinsler has the incumbency, and Jose Lopez (.324/9/22 in 204 ab's with OJW) has the track record.

Projected lineup
C – Yorvit Torrealba
1B – Nick Swisher
2B – Howie Kendrick
3B – Alex Rodriguez
SS – JJ Hardy
RF – Brad Hawpe
CF – Johnny Damon
LF – Gary Sheffield
DH – Jeremy Hermida

Rotation
Oliver Perez
Chad Billingsley
Jeremy Bonderman
Randy Johnson

	The Numbers
	Record: 60-102 (14th in the league) Expected Record: 71-91 (tied for 12th in the league) Runs Scored: 882 (9th in the league) Runs Allowed: 1006 (15th in the league) Run Differential: -124 (13th in the league)