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Dallas - Fort Worth
Spurs
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2009 Year in
Review
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The Numbers
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Record: 82-80 (8th in the league)
Expected Record: 75-87(tied for 10th in the league)
Runs Scored: 725 (12th
in the league)
Runs Allowed: 784 (9th
in the league)
Run Differential: -59 (10th in the league)
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What went right?
DFW ace Justin Duchscherer (11-5, 3.31 in 22 starts) tied for 2nd
in the league in shutouts with 4, and finished 8th
in the league in ERA. Despite only 14 homeruns, long-time DFW 1b Derrek Lee
(.291/.366/.424) rode his clutch hitting all season long to an impressive 94
RBI. From April 20th through June 27th,
DFW was in 1st
place in the Less Filling West for all but 7 days.
What went wrong?
Despite making some strong midseason roster moves, the Spurs fell out of 1st
place on June 28th,
and like that car that starts sliding on the ice, they just never regained
traction. The coup de grace to the Spurs' playoff hopes was a 7-game stretch in
August where they were swept in 2 games by LCC, then swept in 3 (including two
1-run losses) by division rival MSU, then lost the first two games (a 1-run loss
and a 16-inning heartbreaker) to PCM. In the space of little more than a week,
the Spurs had gone from 5.5 games back and still in the wildcard conversation to
11.5 games back and reeling.
In retrospect, the critical decisions were:
1. A series of 3 trade-deadline moves designed to bring on board 6 solid
players. A deal with ILL that brought on board Carlos Marmol (5-2, 1.93, 1 save
with DFW), Jesse Carlson (1-1, 2.03) and David DeJesus (.320/4/26 in 175 ab's)
cost DFW their 2010 #1 pick, but brought definite value to their 2009 season.
Less profitable was a trade of Jeff Keppinger (.253/2/18) and DFW #3 for LVI's
Mark DeRosa (.252/9/33). And not profitable at all was the deal that moved DFW
#4 for Mike Fontenot (.238/2/11) and Ryan Spilborghs (.200/0/0). For reasons
that are unclear from an analysis of the statistical records of the players
changing hands - the loss of players such as Eric Hinske (.213/3/14), Mark
Hendrickson (2-2, 5.61), Doug Brocail (3-2, 7.44), Darin Erstad (.156/0/4) and
even the aging Ken Griffey Jr (.202/9/26) should have done little or nothing to
dampen DFW's fortunes – the new look Spurs simply didn't seem to mesh after the
trades. Hot Stove Heaters is at a loss to explain what happened in Dallas last
September. Perhaps it's best to just chalk it up to “sometimes you put the spurs
to the horse, but the horse just won't go.”
2. All those sacrifice bunts! DFW set a new single-season team record for
sacrifice hits with 115, in the process becoming the first team ever to record
triple-digit self-inflicted outs (the old record was held by 2008 LVI, with 94).
Spurs Denard Span (.264/3/36), Marco Scutaro (.230/4/43), and Macier Izturis
(.249/4/31) finished 1-2-3 in the league in sacs with 35, 28, and 20
respectively, with Jerry Hairston (.345/7/40) adding 10 more and finishing 11th
in the league for good measure. In all, it was a strategy very reminiscent of
Japanese yakyu – a very codified and risk-averse method of playing team
baseball, where one is routinely expected to give up one's own at-bat for the
good of the team. So how did this play out in Texas? It certainly helped DFW
stay out of the double-play: the Spurs had the 2nd
lowest total of GIDP in the league (136). But did it also perhaps help DFW stay
out of the multi-run offensive inning? This is very difficult to determine.
While most NASBL teams appear to prefer the Earl Weaver approach (wait for the
3-run homerun), the 2009 Spurs likely did not have that option. At .399, DFW was
one of only 2 NASBL teams with a slugging percentage of less than .400 (the
other was the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs at .388). So it does appear that manager
Red Robbins had a plan to manufacture runs, and that such a plan was indeed
necessary given the Spurs lack of a classical power supply. The Spurs were 2nd
in the league in H&R attempts (61, behind only MSU's 73), and H&R hits (18,
behind only MSU's 25). The Spurs were also 2nd
in the league in both squeeze attempts (15) and successful squeezes (6). Both
marks trailed only GCG (17 and 7). And finally, while the Spurs may only have
been middle of the pack in getting the green light to steal (70 sb, tied for 10th
in the league), they were among the best in SB success rate (.843, trailing only
the ultra-cautious LCC's .927 mark, compiled in just 55 attempts).
3. Loading up on part-time players. The Spurs 2009 drafts (both
supplemental and Rookie / FA) were marked by a noteworthy trait: The selection
of numerous platoon players and part-timers. Macier Izturis (289 ab's) and Ken
Griffey Jr (358 ab's) in the Supplemental. Denard Span (349) in the 1st
round. John Baker (193) in the 3rd.
Jerry Hairston Jr (261) in the 4th.
It wasn't until 8th
rounder Marco Scutaro (509 ab's) that the Spurs locked in a full-time player.
Add to this that DFW only had one other player besides Scutaro (Derek Lee, 615
ab's) to crack 500 swings of the bat, and you're left with a Mister Potato Head
of a lineup: all the parts might be there in the box, and maybe given enough
time you can make a pretty neat tater out of the kit. But if the cat eats the
wrong piece, or you drop an eyeball down the heater vent, you're left pushing
the yellow cowboy hat into the eye hole, just because it's round and the nearest
thing you could scrape up to put there.
Looking ahead to 2010
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Can K-Rod (162 career saves) reach 200 in 2010?
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Three key
questions
1.
Who is going to take the mound for the Spurs in 2010? The retirement of Greg
Maddux (9-15, 4.76) and a serious arm injury to Justin Duchscherer knocked the
bookends out from around the Dallas rotation. Left standing, however unstably,
are Jeremy Guthrie (13-12, 4.69), David Bush (13-9, 5.29), and Jamie Moyer
(7-14, 5.24). But despite his amazing ongoing display of witchery, Moyer only
managed 159.2 innings in his 31 starts. And at age 46, it might not be
reasonable to expect any further increases in Moyer's stamina. Swingman Armando
Galarraga (7-5, 3.95) might be able to move to the rotation full time, but will
he be up to the task?
2.
Can the Spurs make up for their shortcomings in the rotation with strength in
the pen? Francisco Rodriguez (3-2, 4.00, 28 saves) remains an effective closer,
and Carlos Marmol and Heath Bell (0-3, 1.76, 3 saves) should make an effective
bridge to K-Rod. But the important thing to remember about a bridge is, it
usually has not one, but two banks to rest on...
3.
Will big D be enough in Dallas? This is a question that can be taken many ways.
Big D could be Derek Lee, the core of the DFW lineup. Will his bat be enough?
Big D could be 2nd
year man Denard Span (11th
overall pick in 2009). Will he be able to extend his excellent OBA / speed game
to encompass a full season? Then there's DeRosa and DeJesus. Despite generally
underwhelming career NASBL numbers, both may be relied on to play larger roles
in 2010. And finally, there is the all-important “team D,” as in defense. Lee,
Sanchez, and Scutaro should be solid at turning groundballs into outs, and Span,
DeJesus, and the fleet-footed Franklin Gutierrez (.236/3/16) should make the
outfield expanses of Turnpike Stadium a place where flyballs go to die.
Projected lineup
c – Victor Martinez
1b – Derek Lee
2b – Freddy Sanchez
3b – Mark DeRosa
ss – Marco Scutaro
lf – David DeJesus
cf – Denard Span
rf – Franklin Gutierrez
dh – Milton Bradley
Rotation
David Bush
Jeremy Guthrie
Jamie Moyer
Armando Galarraga
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Closer
Francisco “K-Rod” Rodriguez